Based on the most recent data available, the U.S. economy posted strong growth in the third quarter of 2024 and retained that strength into the end of the year. Growth in the labor force has persisted, though at…...more
With 2024 now in the rearview mirror, we reflect on our outlook, titled “Prepare, Don’t Predict,” as well as the dynamic and unpredictable nature of financial markets. Two of our themes came to pass in 2024, with inflation…...more
The U.S. economy continued to expand strongly in the second quarter, and early third quarter data has shown signs of continued expansion, but potentially at a slower pace. For the second quarter, the Bureau of Economic Analysis estimated…...more
In our 2024 outlook, titled “Prepare, Don’t Predict,” we outlined three broad themes that we believed would influence markets in 2024—inflation stuck in the “messy middle,” consequences of a concentrated market, and preparation for a possible recession. With…...more
The U.S. economy remained resilient in the second quarter but has shown signs of weakening after abnormally strong growth in the prior two quarters. The Bureau of Economic Analysis estimated that real GDP grew at a seasonally adjusted…...more
The U.S. economy’s growth slowed in the fourth quarter of 2023 compared to the prior quarter but continued at a robust pace. The Bureau of Economic Analysis’ (BEA) final estimate of fourth quarter real GDP was an annualized…...more
A year ago, our outlook for 2023 was cautiously optimistic while outlining three primary themes that would influence asset prices in 2023. Those expectations generally came to fruition, though not exactly as anticipated....more
The U.S economy has continued to show resilient growth in recent months, surprising many economists who had expected that a recession would have begun by now due to higher interest rates, tighter credit, and still-elevated inflation. The Bureau…...more
In our 2023 outlook, titled “Navigating Uncertainty,” we outlined three broad themes that we believed would influence markets in 2023—continued volatility, moderating inflation, and a bear market bottom....more
U.S. economic growth slowed in the first quarter of 2023, and the current environment sets up the possibility of weak growth for the remainder of the year. Even though growth was positive for the third consecutive quarter, the…...more